1. Overview

This topic covers the geopolitics of energy access and the fight against climate change, focusing on fossil fuels, international cooperation, and global ecological transitions. It discusses the concentration of fossil fuel reserves and exports, the geopolitical effects of inequalities in resources, and the implications of energy dependency. The session includes the role of major oil and gas producers (Russia, Middle East, US, China), historical geopolitical consequences, and the impact of conflicts like the Russo-Ukrainian war. It then shifts towards ecological policies, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), and the framework of United Nations (UN) climate involvement, including COPs and the IPCC scientific reports. Finally, it covers global and regional strategies for climate action and challenges in financing energy transitions.

2. Core Concepts & Key Elements

• Energy, GDP & GHG Relationship

  • Link between geopolitics of energy and energetic transition.
  • Energy use impacts GDP and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

• Session 3: Access to fossil fuels & international geopolitics

  • Concentration of oil and gas exports in few states causes geopolitical effects detrimental to consumers.
  • Geopolitics studies power of nation-states via geographical, social, and historical factors. Control of energy resources is key.

• Fossil Fuels Overview

  • Types: Oil (31%), Gas (23%), Coal (26%).
  • Characteristics: energy dense, year-round availability, storable, limited, non-renewable, GHG emitters.
  • Resources and uses often geographically separate.

• Oil

  • Existence of global market.
  • Proven conventional oil reserves highly concentrated in Middle East, Venezuela, Canada, Iran, Iraq.
  • Hormuz Strait transits 20% global oil (18 mb/d, 2020).
  • Production and consumption centers: major exporters (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Middle East), major consumers (EU, Asia-Pacific).
  • Asia-Pacific is demand growth center.
  • Major trade movements regulated partly by Saudi Arabia.
  • US: largest producer in 2020 (11.3 mb/d), energy-intensive economy, shale gas relief, exposed to price risk.
  • China: largest oil importer (11.3 mb/d, 2020), focuses on diversification and paying for security of supply.

• Key Trends

  • Rising Asian economic growth drives energy demand.
  • Middle East and Africa integrate economically with Asia.
  • Russia & Middle East incentivized for energy efficiency.
  • EU competes with Asia for resources from Russia and Middle East.
  • Increasing Asian dominance in energy industry.

• Challenges

  • US: reduce oil consumption, increase independence.
  • EU: secure supply relations with exporters and diversify sources.
  • China & India: secure energy trade.
  • Producers: enhance efficiency to sustain exports.

• Natural Gas

  • Reserves concentrated in US, Russia, Qatar, Iran.
  • Production concentrated similarly; major consumers in US, Europe, Far East.
  • Gas trade involves pipeline dominance for Europe, LNG for Asia.
  • Russia can leverage gas between Europe and Asia.

• Energy Market & Socio-Economic Dependency

  • Exporters depend heavily on hydrocarbon revenues for budget and exports (especially Libya, Iran, and Venezuela).
  • Fossil fuel subsidies represent significant budgetary share in many countries.
  • EU energy dependency on imports, especially Russia, necessitates efficiency and diversification.

• Security-of-Supply

  • Dependency is normal but asymmetrical.
  • Risks: short-term disruptions, long-term price and availability issues.
  • Domestic adaptation measures include stocks and diversification.

• Historical Consequences

  • Middle East security and maritime transport are vital (US, UK, France maintain military presence).
  • Hydrocarbon embargoes as political weapons (Japan 1941, Apartheid 1962, Iraq, Iran sanctions).
  • Oil & gas rich states wield international influence disproportionate to population (Qatar, Russia).

• Russo-Ukrainian War & Energy

  • Europe’s ultradependence on Russian gas/oil: Germany (55% gas, 42% oil from Russia), France less so.
  • Russia controls critical metals for energy transition (Aluminum, Palladium, Platinum, Cobalt).
  • European energy sector affected; increased coal use, reliance on LNG, rising emissions.
  • IEA 10-point plan: reduce gas, oil usage, increase energy sobriety (long-term benefit).
  • Crises may accelerate geopolitical and climate decision-making.
  • Climate risks increase likelihood and severity of future conflicts.

• Session 4: Ecological Policy & UN Climate

  • Sustainable Development coined 1972, defined in WCED 1987 report.
  • SDGs succeeded MDGs, applicable to all countries and nationally led.
  • CSR defined by EU as business integration of social and environmental concerns.
  • CSR dimensions: economic, legal, ethical, discretionary.
  • SDGs include intra/inter-generational solidarity, resource management, social justice, polluter pays, biodiversity protection, and ESG principles.
  • COVID-19 setback major sustainable development progress.

• UN Sustainable Development Goals

  • SDGs emphasize climate as priority for success of other goals.
  • UN 2030 Agenda calls for global cooperative action backed by finance (SDG 17).

• UNFCCC & COPs

  • UNFCCC formed 1994, Kyoto Protocol (1997-2020), annual COP meetings.
  • IPCC provides climate change scientific assessment.
  • COP21 Paris Agreement (2015): NDCs, technology transfer, $100 billion Green Fund, loss and damage mechanism, limits warming to below 2°C, pursue 1.5°C.
  • COP26 Glasgow (2021): Methane pledge (-30% by 2030), deforestation, carbon markets, no full coal exit, low financial aid, partial success, warming 1.8-2.4°C by 2050.

• National Carbon Neutrality Commitments

  • China (2060), US (2050), EU (2050), Brazil (2050), India (2070), Russia (2060), Japan (2050).
  • GHG emissions globally still rising despite commitments.

• European Policies & Climate Law

  • EU Green Deal, Fit for 55 package targets 55% GHG reduction by 2030.
  • France SNBC sets carbon budgets and carbon neutrality by 2050.
  • Corporate decarbonization strategies promoted.

• Economic power of oil companies

  • Rise of national state-owned companies (Sinopec, PetroChina) competing with majors.
  • National companies have faster revenue and profit growth than traditional western majors.

• IPCC & Scientific Assessment

  • IPCC established 1988 to synthesize climate knowledge.
  • Working groups: physical science, impacts/adaptation, mitigation strategies.
  • Climate migrant projections: 216 million by 2050.
  • Sea level rise, resource inequalities, geopolitical shifts from fossil fuel decline forecasted.

• Financing Energy Transition

  • $61 trillion needed for power systems to fulfill Paris.
  • China leads global green finance.
  • Policies must consider affordability, equity, governance, and resilience.

• Economic Benefits of Energy Transition

  • Potential net economic benefits $1.8 trillion by 2030 (McKinsey).
  • Circular economy actors include investors, suppliers, consumers.
  • Integrated scenario to keep CO2 levels constant as of 2017.

3. High-Yield Facts

• Geopolitics: power of nation-states explained by geography, history, social factors.
• Fossil fuel share of global energy: Oil 31%, Gas 23%, Coal 26%.
• Hormuz Strait carries 20% of global oil (~18 mb/d, 2020).
• China oil imports: 11.3 million barrels per day (2020).
• US oil production 2020: 11.3 mb/d, largest producer globally.
• Russia natural gas production 2020: 22.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf).
• Qatar gas % GDP: 58%, exports 95%.
• EU energy import dependence on Russia: Germany 55% gas, 42% oil; France 17% gas, 9% oil.
• LNG emissions higher than pipeline gas (+61 to 176%).
• Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted 2015.
• Paris Agreement goals: limit warming <2°C, aim <1.5°C, $100 billion Green Fund.
• COP26 Methane pledge: -30% by 2030.
• Global CO2 emitted since 1850: ~2400 Gt; remaining budget for 2°C: ~1000 Gt.
• IPCC projections: Severe climate impacts at >1.5°C warming.
• Estimated energy system investment needed by 2050: $61 trillion.
• Carbon neutrality targets: US 2050, China 2060, EU 2050, Russia 2060, India 2070.
• Military expenditure in Russia linked to energy revenues (2020 approx. $62 billion).

4. Summary Table

5. Mini-Schema (ASCII)

Energy & Climate Geopolitics
 ├─ Fossil Fuels
 │   ├─ Oil Reserves: Middle East Concentration
 │   ├─ Gas Reserves: US, Russia, Qatar, Iran
 │   ├─ Trade Flows & Strategic Chokepoints (Hormuz)
 ├─ Energy Dependency
 │   ├─ Mutual but asymmetric dependency
 │   ├─ Security-of-Supply Risks
 │   ├─ Historical sanctions and embargoes
 ├─ Russo-Ukrainian Impact
 │   ├─ Europe’s gas/oil dependence exposed
 │   ├─ Shift to coal and LNG usage
 │
Ecological Policy & UN Climate Framework
 ├─ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
 │   ├─ Climate as priority goal
 │   ├─ COVID-19 setbacks
 ├─ Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR)
 │   ├─ Economic, legal, ethical, discretionary levels
 ├─ UNFCCC & COPs
 │   ├─ Paris Agreement 2015, COP26 Glasgow 2021
 │   ├─ NDCs & Carbon neutrality goals
 ├─ IPCC Scientific Reports
 │   ├─ Climate impacts, vulnerability, mitigation
 ├─ Financing & Economics of Energy Transition
     ├─ $61T investment needed by 2050
     ├─ Circular economy role

6. Rapid-Review Bullets

• Geopolitics = power linked to geography & resources.
• Fossil fuels = Oil 31%, Gas 23%, Coal 26%.
• Hormuz Strait carries 20% global oil (18 mb/d).
• Major exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, Middle East countries.
• Major consumers: EU, Asia-Pacific (growth center).
• US largest oil producer in 2020 (11.3 mb/d).
• China is the largest oil importer (11.3 mb/d, 2020).
• Russian gas influences Europe & Asia markets.
• Energy security risks from supply disruptions and price volatility.
• Historic hydrocarbon embargoes: Japan (1941), Apartheid (1962).
• Russo-Ukrainian conflict revealed Euro dependence on Russia.
• EU policy: Green Deal, Fit for 55 (55% GHG cut by 2030).
• Sustainable Development coined in 1972, defined by WCED 1987.
• SDGs cover environment, poverty, equality; climate is cross-cutting.
• UNFCCC established 1994, Kyoto (1997), Paris Agreement (2015).
• IPCC working groups: causes, impacts, mitigation.
• COP26 key outcomes: methane reduction pledge, no coal exit consensus.
• Carbon neutrality targets vary: US 2050, China 2060, India 2070, others.
• $61 trillion investment needed globally for energy transition by 2050.
• CSR integrates social/environmental concerns into corporate practice.
• Climate migrants projected 216 million by 2050.
• LNG has higher GHG emissions than pipeline gas by +61-176%.
• National oil companies growing in global relevance.