Summary of Course Content on Climate Change, Globalization, and Geopolitics

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1. Overview

• Examines the global impact of climate change, energy transition, and geopolitical shifts.
• Focuses on physical and transition risks, economic costs, and geopolitical conflicts.
• Analyzes the influence of major corporations, international trade, and digital sovereignty.
• Emphasizes the importance of understanding interconnected risks and policy responses.
• Follows course chronology: from climate risks to globalization, supply chains, borders, and digital geopolitics.

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2. Core Concepts & Key Elements

Climate Change & Risks

• Physical Risks:
  • Gradual warming: long-term temperature rise affecting ecosystems, infrastructure, agriculture.
  • Extreme weather: hurricanes, floods, wildfires causing economic and human losses.
  • Cost of disasters (2014-2024): billions of dollars.
• Transition Risks:
  • Demand-side: shift to greener products reduces consumption of fossil fuels.
  • Supply-side: costly transition to low-carbon economy (investment in adaptation).
• Climate-related emissions:
  • Wildfires emit ~8.6 billion tonnes CO2 annually, surpassing US emissions (~4.8 billion tonnes).
• Economic modeling:
  • Output: $ Y_t $, efficiency: $ A_t $, inputs: $ K_{jt} $ (natural, physical, human capital).
• Environmental/social boundaries:
  • Doughnut model (Kate Raworth): resource use within ecological limits, ensuring human needs.
• Historical emissions:
  • Rich countries relied on cheap energy; US and China top emitters.
  • Per capita: US, Canada, Europe, South Africa.
  • Inequality: US produces in 2.3 days as much CO2 as a person in southern Africa in 1 year.
• Wealth and emissions:
  • Top 10% responsible for 50% of emissions.
  • Richest 1% attract attention for their disproportionate impact.
• Fossil fuel influence:
  • Major oil companies (e.g., Exxon) control reserves, influence markets, and plan increased extraction.
• Infrastructure & trade impacts:
  • Disrupted transport networks, increased costs, and damages.
  • Example: Boeing layoffs, rising infrastructure costs.
• Natural capital depletion:
  • Finite resources: land, sand, fisheries.
  • Climate reduces yields; food security at risk with population reaching 9 billion.
• Geopolitical opportunities:
  • Melting Arctic opens new routes and resource claims.
  • Arctic sovereignty disputes: EEZ, continental shelves, strategic control.
• Human costs:
  • Reduced productivity: +1°C decreases brain efficiency.
  • Disease spread: dengue in new regions, mosquitos in Iceland.
  • Climate refugees: migration to cooler regions, social tensions.
• Mitigation strategies:
  • Reduce high-carbon consumption.
  • Improve energy efficiency (Jevons paradox: efficiency may increase total consumption).
  • Switch to low-carbon energy sources (most impactful).
• Investments & innovation:
  • US Inflation Reduction Act (2022): $783 billion.
  • Tech optimism: carbon capture, spill-over effects.
  • Ethical concerns: inequality, moral issues.

Supply Chains & Maritime Geopolitics

• Global Value Chains (GVCs):
  • Production spans multiple countries; 70% of trade involves GVCs.
  • JIT manufacturing: minimizes inventory, increases efficiency.
  • Transfer pricing: intra-company pricing to reduce taxes.
  • Risk spreading: subsidiaries in multiple countries (e.g., Apple’s China + India).
• Shipping routes:
  • Containerization (Malcolm McLean): standard containers (20ft, 40ft).
  • Infrastructure shifts: Panama Canal widening, Suez blockage (2021).
  • Pandemic effects: increased transport costs, reshaped trade flows.
• Boundary issues:
  • Land borders: governed by Westphalian sovereignty, Montevideo criteria.
  • Maritime zones:
    • Territorial waters, contiguous zone, EEZ (200 nautical miles).
    • Deep-sea resources: Clarion-Clipperton zone (nickel, metals).
  • South China Sea:
    • China’s nine-dash line claims, artificial islands.
    • Geopolitical tensions: US, Quad alliance, China’s influence.
  • Arctic:
    • Melting ice opens new shipping and resource opportunities.
    • Geopolitical competition among Arctic states.

Digital Sovereignty & Internet Control

• Big Tech & Digital Power:
  • GAMA (Google, Amazon, Meta, Apple) dominate global digital economy.
  • Revenues comparable to nation-states; influence politics, society.
  • Post-2020 growth during COVID-19.
  • US efforts to regulate (antitrust, privacy).
• Global distrust & scandals:
  • NSA surveillance (Snowden, 2013).
  • Cambridge Analytica (2016): election manipulation, Facebook data misuse.
• Splinternet (Balkanization):
  • Fragmentation due to nationalism, technology, infrastructure.
  • Examples:
    • India vs Twitter (content regulation).
    • Telegram arrest (content moderation vs free speech).
• China’s internet control:
  • Golden Shield (Great Firewall): censorship, surveillance, AI-powered censorship.
  • Role of US tech firms in enabling Chinese surveillance.
  • Export of Chinese surveillance tech abroad.
  • Major Chinese platforms: Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, TikTok.
• Russia’s Runet:
  • Evolved from open internet to controlled “sovereign internet” (2019 law).
  • Digital borders, data control, potential disconnection.
• European Union & Regulation:
  • GDPR (2018): data privacy, security, rights.
  • Digital Services Act (2023): platform accountability, illegal content, child protection, diversity, dark patterns.
  • Sanctions: fines up to 6% of global revenue.

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3. High-Yield Facts

• Emissions:
  • Wildfires: 8.6 billion tonnes CO2/year.
  • US: 4.8 billion tonnes CO2/year.
  • Top emitters: China, US.
  • Per capita: US > Canada > Europe.
• Inequality:
  • Top 10% responsible for 50% of emissions.
  • 2.3 days: US CO2 output equals a year of emissions in southern Africa.
• Climate impacts:
  • +1°C: decreased brain productivity.
  • Mosquitoes in Iceland (2025): spread of dengue.
  • 1.1 million deaths annually from air pollution.
• Energy & industry:
  • US Inflation Reduction Act (2022): $783 billion.
  • Tech spillovers: carbon capture, air cleaning.
• Trade & infrastructure:
  • Freight costs: 6% of product price.
  • Container ships: 20ft/40ft standard.
  • Panama Canal widened; Suez blockage (2021).
• Maritime zones:
  • EEZ extends 200 nautical miles.
  • Deep-sea nickel: 4000m deep in Clarion-Clipperton zone.
• Digital regulation:
  • GDPR (2018): 10 key principles.
  • DSA (2023): platform accountability, child safety, dark patterns.
• Geopolitical:
  • Arctic: new shipping routes, resource claims.
  • South China Sea: China’s nine-dash line, artificial islands.
  • US tariffs on China: up to 60%, impact of trade war.

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4. Summary Table

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5. Mini-Schema (ASCII)

Climate Change
 ├─ Physical Risks
 │   └─ Disasters, emissions, costs
 ├─ Transition Risks
 │   └─ Greener demand, low-carbon shift
 ├─ Natural Capital
 │   └─ Finite resources, resource conflicts
 └─ Human & Geopolitical Costs
     └─ Productivity, disease, Arctic, refugees

Globalization & Trade
 ├─ Supply Chains
 │   └─ GVCs, JIT, transfer pricing, risk spreading
 ├─ Shipping & Infrastructure
 │   └─ Containerization, canal widening, incidents
 ├─ Boundaries & Sovereignty
 │   └─ Land borders, EEZ, Arctic, South China Sea
 └─ Digital & Cyber
     └─ Big Tech, splinternet, Chinese & Russian control

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6. Rapid-Review Bullets

• Climate change causes long-term warming and extreme weather events.
• Wildfires emit over 8.6 billion tonnes of CO2 annually.
• Top 10% emit half of global CO2; US and China are major emitters.
• Arctic melting opens new shipping routes and resource claims.
• Infrastructure damages from climate events increase costs and disrupt trade.
• Natural resources are finite; climate reduces agricultural yields.
• China’s Belt and Road links Asia, Europe, Africa; Arctic sovereignty intensifies.
• NSA and Cambridge Analytica scandals eroded trust in Big Tech.
• Splinternet divides global internet due to nationalism and regulation.
• China’s Great Firewall employs AI censorship; export of surveillance tech abroad.
• Russia’s Runet law aims for internet sovereignty and disconnection.
• GDPR (2018) and DSA (2023) regulate platform accountability and data privacy.
• US-China trade war: tariffs up to 60%, affecting global supply chains.
• “America First”: withdrawal from TPP, renegotiation of NAFTA (USMCA).
• Brexit aims for “Global Britain”: strategic, economic, and military reorientation.
• Digital infrastructure: undersea cables (SAIL, PEACE) as geopolitical tools.
• Climate mitigation requires reducing high-carbon consumption, improving efficiency, switching to renewables.
• Geopolitical conflicts over Arctic, South China Sea, and digital sovereignty shape future global order.