Introduction to Business Probability

📋 Course Outline

1. Random Experiments and Trials
2. Sample Spaces, Outcomes and Events
3. Mutually Exclusive and Exhaustive Events
4. Venn Diagrams and Event Relationships
5. Subjective and Frequentist Probability
6. Probability Axioms
7. Expected Value and Linearity

📖 1. Random Experiments and Trials

🔑 Key Concepts & Definitions

• Random experiment : A random experiment is a repeatable process where uncertainty remains and the set of possible outcomes is known.
• Trial : A trial is one single execution of a random experiment, producing one observed result.

📝 Essential Points

• A business example of a random experiment is the number of customers in a day for a store because it is uncertain, repeatable, and has known possible outcomes.
• In a random experiment, uncertainty comes from not knowing which outcome will occur before the trial happens.
• Opening the store every morning can be the random experiment, while the number of customers on a given day is the trial.
• In a business context, one trial can be one customer visit, one loan default, or one day of sales.

💡 Memory Hook

Experiment = the procedure; trial = the one run that happens.

📖 2. Sample Spaces, Outcomes and Events

🔑 Key Concepts & Definitions